Jane Cable - Doing the Maths

It’s the time of the season when those of us with more than just a passing interest in the LV County Championship start scribbling numbers on the backs of envelopes. To be honest, I’ve been doing it for a few weeks now, but then I am probably a particularly sad case.

The numbers that interest me most at this precise moment are these:
167 (Yorkshire, played 14)
155.5 (Durham, played 13… but where on earth did the .5 come from?)
153 (Sussex, played 13)
149 (Lancashire, played 13)
144 (Hampshire, played 13)
Oh, and 66 – the maximum number of points available to Hampshire between now and the end of the season.

The fascination is, that although we are currently lying fifth in the table, it is still possible for us to win the LV County Championship – and not even just a mathematical possibility – although this year the competition is likely to have us all biting our nails right until the last minute. Each week brings resolution a step closer, but I reckon we’ll start the final round of matches on September 19th with at least four of the five teams still in with a shout.

The numbers game means trying to work out the result of each of the matches still to be played; win, lose or draw is hard enough – but when you start adding in the bonus points, then it becomes really complicated. Take two of this week’s matches for a start. We are away, playing Worcestershire. Worcestershire are the only team in the first division who have any degree of certainty: they are going down next season, but they will still be playing for pride. Even so, on paper, we should beat them, so 14 points in the bag. Can we earn 5 bonus points by scoring at more than 3 an over for the first 130? It seems likely. Can we bowl them all out within 130 overs? At Kidderminster? Quite frankly, it’s anyone’s guess…

Down at Hove, Sussex are playing host to top of the table club Yorkshire. It’s commonly believed they will present their guests with a dust bowl of a pitch which will be rather favourable to spinners. The weather conditions look right and Yorkshire are obviously expecting it with their signing of Indian spinner Tahir to complement home grown talent Rashid. Which is interesting, but makes the toss pretty crucial… So let’s sit on the fence, but say a draw with plenty of batting bonus points as either Michael Vaughan (back spasms permitting) or Murray Goodwin, gets stuck in.

All of which introduces a few more variables. I’ve only briefly mentioned the weather, the toss, injuries… and not even touched on non-availability of players due to international duties. I am beginning to suspect you need a computer to model this properly, not a pencil and notepaper. I briefly ponder putting it all on a spreadsheet, but even I am still capable of realising that life (and September) is just too short.

At the end of the day, you have to take a punt, so here goes:

Yorkshire and Sussex will draw, but both get maximum batting points, which means Yorkshire go into the last week, and their match against Hampshire, with 176.

Sussex will take their 9 points from the Yorkshire game, and get the same number against Durham, so start the last week with 171.

Durham play Lancashire this week, and it’s just possible the Old Trafford pitch will be like glue after all the rain. It could simply keep raining in Manchester, so let’s say a draw. Then Lancashire will hope to do to Warwickshire what rivals Yorkshire did, so going into the last week with 180. Durham will be somewhere around the 176.5 mark.

Of course Hampshire will beat Worcestershire with maximum points, and do roughly the same to Kent at The Rose Bowl next week. But let’s allow for a few slip ups in the bonus point department and say we’ll match Lancashire’s 180 at the beginning of the last week. We’ll probably have to.

As for the 19th of September, there’s no doubt that Yorkshire and Hampshire have the toughest task as we face each other at Headingley. Sussex, Lancashire and Durham play the current bottom three teams and so should be able to manage at least 18 points each. Unless it rains. But those three games are all being played in the south of England – only Hampshire travel north.

A draw in that final match will not be enough, indeed at that stage both sides will be playing out and out for maximum points. 22 for Hampshire will mean an outright LV Championship win; 22 for Yorkshire could mean sharing the trophy with Lancashire – not a thought either set of fans would relish. But one thing is certain, with captains Shane Warne and Darren Gough, even if it rains for the best part of four days, that final game of the season will not peter out into a tame draw. So it’s time for Hampshire fans to put away the calculators and envelopes and start brushing down the anoraks and flasks of soup – Headingley, here we come!

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